FARSIGHT is published quarterly by the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS), an independent and non-profit think tank with half a century’s experience in using futures studies to address the challenges facing societies and organisations.
FARSIGHT is the successor to Scenario, the Institute’s previous print journal and articulates the CIFS core advisory offerings, including megatrend analysis, scenario planning, risk assessment, innovation processes and strategic foresight.
About Issue 14, 'European Futures':
Many of us struggle with uncertainty, perhaps because our brains are poorly equipped to handle it. We are wired to look for patterns, establish coping mechanisms, and utilise mental shortcuts to conserve energy. Uncertainty provides us with few patterns on which to base our decision-making – dealing with it can be mentally exhausting.
Yet uncertainty is inherent to the future, and any attempt at anticipating it will need to accept rather than ignore this fact. As a form of futures inquiry, foresight does not avoid uncertainty but acknowledges and indeed embraces it. Foresight enables us to sort through the noise of signals, determine which key drivers of change to monitor, and explore how their interactions give rise to novel outcomes not previously anticipated.
Scenario building is a foresight method developed for exactly the kind of turbulent times we live in today. It allows us to explore multiple plausible outcomes in a structured manner by focusing our attention on a finite number of factors. It makes the uncertainty inherent to the future less overwhelming and helps foster a culture of preparedness rather than prediction.
Europe’s future is contested and full of uncertainty. Applying a scenario approach to discussing it, which we have done on the following pages, can sharpen our sense of what’s at stake and stress test our ability to face a range of different outcomes – both the ones we find favourable and the ones we’d prefer not to think about.
